Exploring The Impacts Of Self Driving Vehicles And Shared Mobility On Congestion by Arup

How do we begin to evaluate the impact of autonomous vehicles and shared mobility services on congestion? How do we embrace the uncertainty surrounding these new mobility technologies?

Cities have been losing the fight with the automotive industry. The failure to act proactively in the field of shared and autonomous mobility would risk urban futures similar to the car-centric developments that prevailed in the 20th century.

If left unchecked, the widespread adoption of shared and autonomous mobility could exacerbate city sprawl, increase congestion and pollution, discourage active travel and human-centred spaces and decrease equal access to jobs.

If shaped proactively, with clear terms of reference designed to optimise positive societal outcomes, widespread adoption could decrease congestion and pollution, free space for enhanced public spaces, solve the transportation last mile problem and increase equal access to jobs.

This visualisation looks at some of the key factors that impact traffic patterns and explores the complex relationships between them. By building on extensive research and data, including typical demand conditions in various cities, local propensities to use shared services, the costs of driving a car as well as socio-economic and cultural variables, it shows the magnitude of impact that shared and autonomous mobility technologies will have on urban congestion.

In thinking through the potential implications of multiple future changes in a clear way, we can help city decision makers manage risk in the face of uncertainty, while also adding a measure of flexibility to policy decisions. With appropriate market shaping, autonomous vehicles and mobility services could help cure congestion in cities. This visualisation will give decision makers a better understanding of how changes in different parameters within their control are likely to impact actual behaviour; hence it will help them to identify the most critical areas for new regulations and policies when trying to solve congestion problems.

Please find the screencast here: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1N-xt3NfEmFLuiZfsiGnUR9WJiH8SRboh